The Kenya Meteorological Services Authority (KMSA) has warned the nation to prepare for a powerful El Niño event. Above-average rainfall is expected during the October–December rainy season, placing several counties at high risk for floods, landslides, and major infrastructure damage.
Speaking during a climate update webinar, Hannah Kimani, a climate scientist at KMSA, clarified common misconceptions surrounding the phenomenon. “El Niño is not rainfall,” Kimani explained. “It is a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean that occurs every two to seven years and influences weather globally.”
Kimani revealed that there is an 81% chance the 2026 El Niño will become very strong, and a 97% chance it will persist into early 2027. She noted that while a strong El Niño increases the likelihood of heavy rainfall in Kenya, the final outcome also depends heavily on conditions in the Indian Ocean. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically correlates with above-average rainfall during the October–December season, and there is currently a greater than 60% chance of a positive IOD developing from August.
According to KMSA, counties situated along the Tana, Athi, Ewaso Nyiro, Rift Valley, and Lake Victoria river basins face the highest risk of riverine flooding. Transport and logistics in Tana River, Lamu, Isiolo, and Marsabit counties could also face severe disruptions if critical bridges and roads are damaged by torrential rains.
Communities surrounding Lake Victoria, Lake Turkana, and the Rift Valley lakes including Kisumu, Homa Bay, Nakuru, and Naivasha have been advised to prepare for rising water levels and backflow flooding. Meanwhile, mountainous and hilly regions such as West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nakuru, and Murang’a face a heightened risk of landslides and mudslides.
Zachary Misiani, a Disaster Risk Management and Anticipatory Action Expert at KMSA, emphasized that lessons learned from previous severe weather events highlight the necessity of immediate action. “Preparedness, readiness, and anticipatory action can significantly reduce the impacts of the 2026 El Niño-induced rainfall,” Misiani urged.
Misiani called on county governments and local communities to act immediately by raising public awareness, mapping evacuation routes, clearing drainage systems, monitoring river levels, inspecting critical infrastructure, and pre-positioning emergency relief supplies.
Despite the significant hazards, weather experts noted that the predicted rains could bring substantial benefits to farmers and pastoralists. If communities prepare effectively, the increased precipitation will replenish water reservoirs, restore soil moisture, and boost overall agricultural and livestock production across the country
