A strengthening El Niño weather pattern is expected to continue into early 2027, raising concerns over heavy rainfall, flooding and food security across parts of East Africa. According to a special report released by Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG), on August 18th 2026, there is a 95 percent chance that the current El Niño will be classified as a strong or very strong event later this year.
The report warns that the effects will not be the same across the region, while western parts of East Africa are experiencing below-average rainfall, countries in the eastern and southern parts, including Kenya, Somalia, eastern and southern Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, are likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the October to December rainy season.
For Kenya, the expected rains could bring both opportunities and risks.
Above-average rainfall could help replenish rivers, reservoirs and groundwater, improve water availability and restore pasture for livestock. Farmers could also benefit from improved soil moisture and better agricultural conditions.
However, the report warns that excessive rainfall could increase the risk of flooding, which may lead to loss of lives, destruction of crops and livestock, displacement of families and damage to roads, bridges and other infrastructure.
Flooding could also disrupt transport, markets and access to health and other essential services. The report further warns of increased risks of water- and vector-borne diseases.
The expected heavy rains come as some parts of East Africa are already dealing with poor rainfall, where Western and northwestern Kenya are among areas that have recorded prolonged dry conditions.
The report says several areas across the region have received less than 60 percent of normal rainfall, with some experiencing among their driest seasons on record.
The dry conditions have affected farming and livestock production. Reports from western Kenya and other affected areas indicate delayed planting, poor germination, crop wilting and reduced planting.
Reduced rainfall has also affected water sources and pasture, putting pressure on livestock keepers. Declining pasture and water availability could lead to reduced milk production, falling livestock productivity and lower household incomes.
The report warns that these effects could worsen food insecurity in 2027 as households enter the post-harvest period with reduced food stocks and incomes. With the October-December rains expected to be wetter than normal in eastern parts of the region, the report is calling for early preparedness.
Governments and communities are encouraged to take measures to reduce the impact of possible flooding, including protecting vulnerable areas and preparing for disruptions to roads, markets, health services and water supplies.
The report also emphasizes the need to monitor food security, child nutrition and access to essential services, particularly among vulnerable communities.
Past El Niño events provide a warning of what could happen, where the 1997 El Niño, which was classified as very strong, brought widespread flooding across Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Uganda.
The floods caused deaths, displacement, infrastructure damage, disease outbreaks and crop losses, although the rains also improved pasture and water availability in some drought-affected areas.
The 2023 El Niño similarly brought exceptionally heavy October-December rains across parts of East Africa. According to the report, the floods caused extensive displacement, infrastructure damage, crop losses and livestock deaths, with 705 flood-related deaths recorded across the region.
With another strong El Niño developing, the report says now is the time for governments and communities to prepare rather than wait for the rains and their impacts to arrive.
For East Africa, the coming months could therefore bring a difficult balance: much-needed water and improved pasture on one hand, but increased flood and food-security risks on the other.
