Kenya has stepped up preparations for a potentially severe El Niño season, with the government placing 18 counties on a high-risk list ahead of forecasts of above-normal rainfall from October.
Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen said authorities had mapped areas likely to face flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks, displacement and damage to infrastructure.
“Areas exposed to various risks, including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks and infrastructure damage, have been mapped as part of the wider plan to mitigate the effects of El Niño,” Murkomen said.
The risk assessment by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) identifies parts of the Coast, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions as particularly vulnerable.
In the Coast region, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale have been identified as vulnerable to flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and infrastructure damage.
The government warned that flooding could force residents in some areas to leave their homes.
In the Lake Basin, Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori face risks including flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and displacement.
Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu have also been classified as high-risk urban centres, with authorities warning of possible flooding, blocked drainage systems, pressure on infrastructure and disruption of essential services.
The expected weather conditions could bring a different set of challenges to parts of the Rift Valley and North Eastern regions.
Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok could experience drought, flash floods, landslides, livestock losses and food insecurity.
Meanwhile, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera are considered vulnerable to drought, water shortages, loss of livestock, poor pasture and food insecurity.
Murkomen said the affected counties had been prioritised in government response planning according to their level of vulnerability.
“The identified counties have been prioritised in the response planning based on their vulnerability to various risks,” he said.
The government said the list could be expanded if further assessments identify additional areas at risk.
National and county emergency response teams have been placed on high alert as authorities prepare for the anticipated weather conditions.
“The National Emergency Multi-Agency and County Emergency Response teams have been put on high alert and are being sensitised on their roles in view of the expected weather situations,” Murkomen said.
The preparations come amid warnings from international weather agencies that El Niño is strengthening. The World Meteorological Organization has warned of the potential for a strong event between August and October, with wetter-than-normal conditions expected in parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
Murkomen said there is an 81 per cent probability of a strong El Niño, while there is a 97 per cent probability that its effects could persist into early 2027.
The government says the risk mapping will help guide preparedness, resource allocation and emergency response in areas considered most exposed.
