The threat of a strong El Niño event has raised fresh concerns over global food security, with the World Food Programme (WFP) warning that millions of people could face worsening hunger if the weather pattern develops as projected.
WFP estimates that nearly 49 million additional people could experience acute food insecurity by the end of next year due to the effects of El Niño.
In its latest report, the United Nations agency said there is an 81 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño event occurring, with ocean temperatures currently at their highest levels in decades.
The assessment, conducted across 45 countries considered highly vulnerable to El Niño impacts, shows that the number of people facing crisis-level hunger or worse could rise by 22 per cent, bringing the global total to about 274 million people.
Sub-Saharan Africa is among the regions expected to be hardest hit, as changing weather patterns threaten agricultural production and food supplies.
According to WFP, food insecurity could increase by nearly 75 per cent in Southern Africa, with millions more people expected to struggle to access enough food.
Parts of East Africa are also at risk, with below-average rainfall forecast in some areas, while Somalia and neighbouring regions face an increased risk of flooding.
“These are events that in the past have triggered large-scale hunger,” said Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service.
Bauer said global food markets entered the current El Niño period in a relatively stable position following strong harvests in 2025, but warned that other factors, including conflicts in the Middle East and weather-related crop losses, could still push food prices higher in some regions.
He noted that while previous El Niño events have not usually caused major increases in global food prices, local shortages could make it more difficult for vulnerable households to afford adequate food.
WFP has also raised concerns over declining donor funding, saying reduced resources are affecting its ability to closely monitor emerging food crises.
The agency conducted about 1.1 million household surveys in 2024, but the number dropped to around 800,000 in 2025 and has declined further this year due to funding challenges.
“At a time when you have a risk like an El Niño, it is important to have high-frequency data collection,” Bauer said, warning that reduced monitoring could delay efforts to identify communities facing worsening food shortages.
The agency says timely information will be critical in helping governments and humanitarian organisations respond quickly to areas where hunger risks are rising.
