Most parts of the country are set to experience generally dry weather between July 21 and July 27, though localized rainfall, hot afternoons, and chilly nights are expected in specific counties, according to the latest weekly outlook from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD).
Rainfall is anticipated across selected counties in Western Kenya and the Rift Valley including Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Nakuru, Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Narok, Bomet, Nyamira, Vihiga, Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Migori, and Nyandarua as well as Lamu along the Coast. In addition, parts of the Central Highlands and surrounding areas (Nairobi, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Meru, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Nyeri, and Tharaka-Nithi) will experience intermittent cool and cloudy conditions accompanied by light rains.
Temperatures are projected to rise significantly during the day, exceeding 30°C in several regions. Residents in Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Busia, Bungoma, Kakamega, West Pokot, and Turkana counties are advised to prepare for hot afternoon conditions.
Conversely, night-time temperatures are expected to drop below 10°C in parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nakuru, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Kiambu, and Taita Taveta. The Weatherman has urged residents in these cold-prone regions to dress warmly, particularly during the late evening and early morning hours.
Looking further ahead, Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Muriuki noted that despite an 80% to 82% probability of El Niño conditions developing, the June-August period will remain largely dry across most of Kenya, with Western Kenya receiving depressed rainfall.
The enhanced rainfall typically associated with El Niño is expected during the primary October-November-December (OND) short rains season.
KMD clarified that El Niño does not affect local weather patterns alone; the department is actively tracking the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which measures sea surface temperature differences across the tropical Indian Ocean.
A positive IOD (warmer waters near the Kenyan coast) combined with El Niño historically triggers heavy rainfall during OND, whereas a negative IOD tends to suppress rainfall. The department continues to advise the public to monitor official KMD updates for real-time weather alerts.
