A majority of Kenyans believe that former Deputy President and Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua’s most viable path to defeating President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election lies in uniting behind a single opposition candidate, according to a recent survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA).
The poll conducted between June 13 and June 22, 2026, sampling 2,048 respondents across nine key regions revealed that 62% of respondents advocate for Gachagua backing the strongest unified opposition candidate. In contrast, only 14% believe he should personally lead the opposition ticket, while 5% contend President Ruto will emerge victorious regardless of who challenges him.
Although President Ruto currently leads overall presidential preferences at 24%, TIFA analysts note that his standing at only a quarter of the public leaves significant opportunity for the opposition to mount a formidable challenge if they consolidate support.
Currently, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna leads opposition contenders at 15% a rapid rise from zero support in 2025 followed closely by Jubilee’s Fred Matiang’i at 14% and Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka at 13%. Meanwhile, 20% of respondents remain undecided.
The survey also highlighted distinct regional strongholds across the political landscape: President Ruto retained majority support in the Northern region, while Sifuna led in Western, Matiang’i in Nyanza, Kalonzo in Lower Eastern, and Gachagua in Mt. Kenya.
Public sentiment toward the current administration reflects growing friction, with 52% of Kenyans opposing the Broad-Based Government nearly double the 30% who support it.
Furthermore, overall voter participation faces notable structural hurdles, as 17% of eligible Kenyans remain unregistered. Among young adults aged 18 to 24, half cited the lack of a national ID as their primary barrier to registering, whereas respondents aged 45 and above primarily reported administrative and bureaucratic challenges during the registration process.
