LODWAR — Turkana County Deputy Governor Dr. John Erus has put pastoralist communities across Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, and Ethiopia on high alert as heavy rains loom over the Karamoja cluster, warning of potential flooding, livestock losses, disease outbreaks, and human displacement expected between October and December.
Speaking during the opening of the sixth Sub-Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the Ateker/Karamoja Cluster under the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Dr. Erus emphasized that seamless regional cooperation will be critical in helping pastoralist communities cope with the anticipated weather conditions. He noted that the three-day forum brings together government officials, meteorologists, pastoralist representatives, indigenous forecasters, development partners, and sector experts to translate climate predictions directly into early action.
Dr. Erus revealed that diplomatic efforts are already underway to cushion local herders against the severe effects of the predicted downpours by ensuring access to vital grazing land across international boundaries. The Kenyan government has already engaged the Ugandan government regarding cross-border access to key resources, allowing pastoralists to safely seek pasture and water on the Ugandan side if local fields become submerged or damaged.
According to the Deputy Governor, IGAD’s regional involvement remains vital in establishing a robust framework that goes beyond simply translating climate forecasts to actively protecting the livelihoods of pastoralist families throughout the border region.
Reinforcing the Deputy Governor’s alert, Turkana County Commissioner Julius Kavita warned that while climate change is a global phenomenon, its local impact could prove catastrophic for communities that depend entirely on livestock. Kavita raised immediate alarms over the rising levels of Lake Turkana, directly driven by increased water inflows from Ethiopia’s Omo River. He warned that the surging lake is already displacing shoreline populations and urged both county and national governments to prepare rapid response interventions before the heavy rains compound the crisis.
The County Commissioner further warned that severe downpours could wash away herds and destroy pasture across the Karamoja Cluster for up to a month, forcing rapid, widespread migrations as families search for viable land. Climate experts at the forum highlighted that one of the region’s greatest vulnerabilities is the persistent gap between issuing early warnings and taking timely, ground-level action. Because roughly 70 percent of the region is arid or semi-arid, officials are focusing on cascading seasonal predictions to the last mile using native languages, community radio, traditional elders, and extension officers. Early preparation is seen as essential not only to save lives and livestock, but also to prevent competition over temporarily scarce resources from escalating into cross-border conflicts before the official seasonal advisories are released at the close of the summit.
