The October–December 2026 short rains season is expected to bring above-average rainfall to much of Kenya, with 43 of the country’s 47 counties likely to experience heavier-than-normal rains, according to the Kenya Meteorological Department.
Deputy Director Charles Mugah stated that above-average rainfall is expected in Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita/Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and Wajir, as well as large parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit counties.
He added that average to above-average rainfall is also anticipated in Turkana and isolated parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit.
The rains have already started in several parts of western and Rift Valley counties, including Nandi, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisumu and Narok, and are expected to intensify through January.
In central Kenya, including Nairobi, forecasters have indicated that the onset of the rains is expected between the second and third weeks of October.
The forecast has raised concerns over the potential impact of heavy rains on schools and the administration of national examinations, particularly for candidates preparing to sit the Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCSE), Kenya Junior School Education Assessment (KJSEA) and Kenya Primary School Education Assessment (KPSEA).
Speaking during the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum in Nairobi, where government officials, scientists and humanitarian organizations met to prepare for the season, Ministry of Education Director of Administration Dr Kanyi Gioko noted that some examination centers could temporarily become inaccessible due to flooding and damaged infrastructure.
However, Dr Gioko assured the public that the examinations would proceed as scheduled, confirming that the government was prepared to deploy helicopters and drones to deliver examination materials to areas cut off by floods.
He further urged schools to prepare for potential disruptions by stocking sufficient supplies of non-perishable food to prevent shortages. He also advised institutions in flood-prone areas, including parts of Wajir, to consider adjusting their daily schedules to complete learning activities before heavy afternoon downpours begin.
Meteorologists have linked the expected heavy rainfall to a combination of climate drivers, including El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a phenomenon associated with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and increased rainfall over East Africa.
Experts have observed that the current conditions mirror those experienced during previous seasons that resulted in severe flooding, including the heavy rains of 2015.
Coastal and eastern regions are projected to receive rainfall starting around mid-October, with wet conditions potentially extending through December or January.
Despite the generally wet outlook, specialists have highlighted that Turkana faces a 15 to 20 per cent probability of experiencing localized mild drought conditions, underscoring the significant regional variations expected across the country.
Acting Director at the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority Edward Muriuki stressed the need for authorities and communities to translate climate forecasts into practical action.
He said continuous updates would be essential to enable schools, emergency response agencies, and local communities to make timely decisions and mitigate the potential effects of flooding and other weather-related disruptions.
